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After the reduction of new cases of Covid-19 and unlocking in many states, now the discussion has started among scientists and general public about when the third wave of corona will come. It is a matter of relief that vaccination has gained momentum in India. Till Thursday, more than 33 crore doses have been given. More than 20% of the adult population across the country has taken at least one dose. At the same time, 4.3% of the population has been fully vaccinated.
Scientists are also saying that how frightening the third wave will be, it will decide the status of vaccination. Will there really be a third wave? When will it come? Will this wave be as frightening as the second wave? These are questions to which answers are being sought. The debate on this started when Delhi-AIIMS Director Dr. Randeep Guleria said on June 19 that the third wave would hit India in 6-8 weeks. It will be as frightening as the second wave. His forecast was a kind of warning that the measures to prevent Kovid-19 should not be abandoned. Hand washing, social distancing and above all wearing a mask are essential. But after that a debate broke out on different forums regarding this.
Will there be a third wave?
Yes. All experts are convinced about this. Actually, the third, fourth, fifth ie any wave can come in the epidemic. Comes too. The important thing is how prepared are we to face them? For this reason, the speed of vaccination has been increased. So that more and more population gets vaccinated before the third wave arrives.
There have been 4 studies and forecasts regarding the third wave in India. Let us know what it says…
Third wave to come in October: Reuters survey
Whose claim: Reuters News Agency
Claim Basis: A survey was conducted between June 3 and 17 among 40 healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists and professors. Get to know their opinion on different questions.
What was said: The important thing is that 100% i.e. all the experts agreed that the third wave will come in India. 85% said a third wave would come in October. At the same time, some gave predictions of the third wave between August-September and some between November-February. The good thing is that 70% of experts feel that the third wave will be in control as compared to the second wave. At that time there was a shortage of vaccines, medicines, oxygen, hospital beds. But in the third wave the peak will not even reach four lakhs.
Warning: 65% of experts believe that this time children and under-18 population will be at higher risk. At the same time, the number of those who did not believe so was 35%. Dr. Pradeep Banandur, head of the department of epidemiology at the National Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences (NIMHANS), says that there is no vaccine available for under-18s. In such a situation, in the third wave, they will be at the highest risk. Dr. Devi Shetty, cardiologist at Narayana Health, said that we are not prepared for a large number of children getting infected. Nothing is going to happen to us in the last moments.
Children are less at risk in the third wave, adults are at risk
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Who's claim: WHO and AIIMS
Claim Basis: A seroprevalence study with a sample size of 10 thousand was conducted in 5 states along with the survey. Data of 4,500 participants has been taken. The final results will come in two or three months.
What said: If the third wave comes in India, then the risk will be equally between the elders and the children. It cannot be said that children will be more at risk. In some areas, antibodies against the corona virus have been formed in more children than adults.
Dr. Puneet Mishra, Professor of Community Medicine at AIIMS-Delhi, led the study. The survey says that the sero positivity rate was the highest in the urban areas of South Delhi at 74.7%. A horrific second wave was witnessed in this area. Due to this, most of the people did not even know about it and they passed away due to Kovid-19 infection. Most people would have been asymptomatic.
The survey says that antibodies have been formed in children. Even if the school is opened, there will be no risk. In the second wave, the sero positivity rate in Faridabad (rural area) of NCR region has been shown to be 59.3% (same among children and adults). This is higher than the previous national survey. Gorakhpur was the most affected in rural areas. This also means that herd immunity is more likely to form here. In Gorakhpur rural area, 80% sero positivity rate has been found in the group of 2-18 years.
Warning: The survey revealed that 62.3% of the rural population has been infected with Kovid-19. But the sero-positivity rate is the lowest (51.9%) in the northeastern cities like Agartala. That is, the danger still persists in these areas.
The third wave will be the most frightening in Maharashtra: Kovid Task Force
Whom to claim: Maharashtra Kovid Task Force
Claim Basis: Survey and Analysis
What said: Third wave can infect 50 lakh people in Maharashtra. In this also more than 10% i.e. more than 5 lakh children will be infected. The number of active cases at peak can reach up to 8 lakhs.
The task force says that this wave will be the most terrible. Even deadlier than the second destructive wave. This will come because of the Delta Plus variant, whose first case in the country was found in Maharashtra itself. According to Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry, when there is a mutation in the virus. Then his vitality increases. When there are many cases, the possibility of its mutation is also high. We have seen before and even now we are seeing that cases are not decreasing in Maharashtra.
It is only after this warning that Level 3 restrictions have been re-imposed in the state. Shops cannot open after 4 pm. At the same time, some rules of lockdown have been imposed. Corona curfew is being imposed in most of the big cities at night.
Warning: According to Maharashtra's Food and Drug Minister Rajendra Shringare, 2.5 lakh out of 5 lakh children may be hospitalized.
If all restrictions are lifted by July 15, third wave will come in September: IIT Kanpur
Whose claim: IIT-Kanpur researchers
Basis of claim: Build a mathematical model. It said that if all restrictions on mobility are lifted by July 15, three scenarios can be created.
What to say: Experts from IIT-Kanpur have made these predictions based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recorded (SIR) model. The epidemiological model estimates the number of potentially infected people over a time series of a population infected with COVID-19. The model is based on data from the second wave.
The peak of the third wave in the first scenario will come in October. The peak will be of 3.2 lakh cases per day. In the second scenario, new and more infectious variants have been kept in mind. It is assumed that no restrictions will be imposed, then the peak may come in September. But it can come up to 5 lakh cases every day.
In the third scenario, it has been speculated that what would happen if strict restrictions were imposed to prevent the spread of the virus? Under this, the peak will be weaker than the second wave, but it will also reach twice the peak of the first wave, ie 2 lakh infections daily.
Warning: It has been claimed in all three scenarios that the third wave will come. The peak therein will be two, three or five times the peak of the first wave of September 2020. But researchers have not taken into account vaccination coverage. This is a shortcoming. Experts believe that the increased coverage of vaccination will also be reflected in the decreasing number of positive cases.
